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Moderated conference on GMOs in the pipeline, hosted by the FAO Biotechnology Forum in 2012

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This is from José Falck-Zepeda, again. This note is in response to the question of what are the likely impacts of the technologies in the pipeline. 

As we have seen in some of the messages, there will likely be an increase in second and third generation GM technologies. These are GM traits focused on addressing nutritional and/or agronomic constraints such as salt and drought tolerance and other addressing climate change and climate risk mitigation. We may also see more of these traits in those crops of interest to developing countries. Although, there have been some literature debating the institutional constraints that may be a binding barrier for the development of so called "pro-poor" technologies, at the heart of the matter is addressing these barriers that include biosafety, intellectual property rights, technology transfer, and seed/vegetative material system issues. 

This means in terms of likely impact, that we will need to refine our impact research in terms of methods and approaches as the issues and impacts will likely be nuanced and in desperate need of more analysis. Impacts are not likely to be qualitatively different to the ones described below, yet if more technologies are developed to address binding constraints for crops and traits of interest to developing countries, this fact, opens a significant potential for capturing significant impacts that can benefit resource poor farmers and consumers in developing countries.

As we suggested in an extensive literature review that we conducted at IFPRI of the existing literature on economic impact with an identifiable peer review process and methods (Smale et al 2009), show that "On average LMO crops have a higher economic performance - but averages do not reflect existing variability.too few crops..too early to draw generalizations or fully describe adoption". This notion is not surprising taking into consideration the heterogeneity we find across crops, traits, producers and abiotic/biotic stresses. These conclusions are based on roughly 187 papers in the literature.

The notion of higher economic performance but quite heterogeneous impact, is supported by a meta-analysis published by Finger et al (2011). Their focus on qualifying their results indicating that higher impacts of Bt or other insect resistant technologies in those countries where there is poor insect management is quite robust based on the experience with integrated pest management and other insect crop management research. The later may be the case in India and other developing countries.

An excellent meta-analysis conducted by Areal, Riesgo and Rodriguez-Cerezo in 2012 concluded that "GM crops perform better than their conventional counterparts in agronomic and economic (gross margin) terms..tend to perform better in developing countries than in developed countries.Bt cotton being the most profitable crop grown". These authors work with the Institute of Prospective Technical Studies (IPTS) one of the EU-Joint Research Centers. The quality of their work is outstanding.

We are likely to see more or less the same qualitative results, but if the technologies indeed address developing countries issues, this quantitative level may increase significantly.

José Falck-Zepeda
Senior Research Fellow/Leader Policy Team, 
Program for Biosafety Systems
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
2033 K Street NW, Washington, DC 20006-1002, 
USA
Tel.: +1.202.862.8158 
Fax: +1.202.4674439 
Cell: +1.301.787.2586
Skype: josefalck
e-mail: J.FALCK-ZEPEDA (at) CGIAR.ORG
Brief bio: http://www.ifpri.org/staffprofile/jose-falck-zepeda
Publications http://josefalckzepeda.pbworks.com/w/page/9007235/FrontPage
Blog: http://socioeconomicbiosafety.wordpress.com/
Follow me on Twitter: @josefalck

References:

Areal, F.J., L. Riesgo, and E. Rodriguez-Cerezo. 2012. Economic and agronomic impact of commercialized GM crops: a meta-analysis. Journal of Agricultural Science, doi:10.1017/S0021859612000111

Falck Zepeda, J.B., D. Horna, P. Zambrano and M. Smale. "Policy and Institutional Factors and the Distribution of Economic Benefits and Risk from the Adoption of Insect Resistant (Bt) Cotton in West Africa." 2008. Asian Biotechnology Development Review 11(1):1-32.

Falck Zepeda, J., D. Horna and M. Smale. "Distribution of economic benefits and risk from the adoption of insect resistant cotton in West Africa" 2008. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Finger, R., N. El Benni, T. Kaphengst, C. Evans, S. Herbert, B. Lehmann, S. Morse, and N. Stupak. 2011. A meta analysis on farm-level costs and benefits of GM crops. Sustainability, 743-762. doi:10.3390/su3050743

Smale, Melinda; Zambrano, Patricia; Gruère, Guillaume P.; Falck-Zepeda, Jose´ Benjamin; Matuschke, Ira; Horna, Daniela; Nagarajan, Latha; Yerramareddy, Indira; Jones, Hannah. Measuring the economic impacts of transgenic crops in developing agriculture during the first decade : Approaches, findings, and future directions. 2009. Food Policy Review 10. Washington, D.C. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/pv10.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.2499/0896295117FPRev10

Special Issue AgbioForum "Farmers and Researchers Discovering Biotech Crops: Experiences Measuring Economic Impacts among New Adopters" Melinda Smale and José Falck-Zepeda, Guest Editors, Vol 15, Num 2, 2012.
- Smale, M.  Rough Terrain for Research: Studying Early Adopters of Biotech Crops. 
- Zambrano,P,  M. Smale, J.H. Maldonado, & S.L. Mendoza. Unweaving the Threads: The Experiences of Female Farmers with Biotech Cotton in Colombia.
- Falck-Zepeda, J., A. Sanders, C. Rogelio Trabanino, & R. Batallas-Huacon. Caught Between Scylla and Charybdis: Impact Estimation Issues from the Early Adoption of GM Maize in Honduras.
- Yorobe, Jr. J.M.  & M. Smale. Impacts of Bt Maize on Smallholder Income in the Philippines
- Gouse, M. GM Maize as Subsistence Crop: The South African Smallholder Experience
- Birol, E., M. Smale, & J.M. Yorobe, Jr. Bi-Modal Preferences for Bt Maize in the Philippines: A Latent Class Model
- Smale, M.,  P. Zambrano, R. Paz-Ybarnegaray, & W. Fernandez Montaño A Case of Resistance: Herbicide-tolerant Soybeans in Bolivia.

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