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Amir Kassam <[log in to unmask]>
Mon, 1 Aug 2022 08:42:02 +0100
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*Global CA-CoP* *CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE COMMUNITY OF*

*for sustainable agriculture, land use and ecosystem management*

Dear Subscribers,

Please see herebelow a message from David Duthie of Bioplan regarding 'The
Ministry of the Future and the Limits to Economic Growth'.

Apologies for any cross-posting.



*Amir Kassam *

*Moderator*

*Global CA-CoP*

e-mail: [log in to unmask]

URL: http://www.fao.org/conservation-agriculture

URL: http://www.act-africa.org/

URL: https://ecaf.org/
URL: http://www.caa-ap.org/

URL: http://caapas.org/

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: David Duthie <[log in to unmask]>
Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2022 at 07:46
Subject: The Ministry of the Future and the Limits to Economic Growth
To: bioplan <[log in to unmask]>


Dear BIOPLANNERS,



I have slowed down on BIOPLAN posts in recognition that many of you will be
on vacation. In addition, lots of us will be suffering under climate-driven
heatwaves (38oC here in Oxford last week), during which I shut myself away
with Kim Stanley Robinson’s 563 page “*The Ministry for the Future*
<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.orbitbooks.net%2Forbit-excerpts%2Fthe-ministry-for-the-future-chp-3%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cbioplan%40groups.undp.org%7C83fa38b805cf4ddf560f08da734ba5eb%7Cb3e5db5e2944483799f57488ace54319%7C0%7C0%7C637949065987595957%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=tdNLdJoiHrzwjrs%2BGTUdGqVcr9EBh4lyC72YBmMVhqk%3D&reserved=0>”,
which I strongly recommend to those who have not yet read it – an
impressive pastiche of climate truths, gripping human(e) storytelling.



Here is a link to one of the key components of the transformation KSR
describes in his cli-fi novel -
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-04-22/kim-stanley-robinson-let-the-fed-print-money-for-the-planet
<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Ffeatures%2F2020-04-22%2Fkim-stanley-robinson-let-the-fed-print-money-for-the-planet&data=05%7C01%7Cbioplan%40groups.undp.org%7C83fa38b805cf4ddf560f08da734ba5eb%7Cb3e5db5e2944483799f57488ace54319%7C0%7C0%7C637949065987595957%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=dWdEPVxM3bVscvieGgAZQPgiA5eljZ4UiBwqYcWQsmk%3D&reserved=0>
and there are quite a few of his talks/interviews on You Tube; e.g.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vLlUty0ne0
<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D5vLlUty0ne0&data=05%7C01%7Cbioplan%40groups.undp.org%7C83fa38b805cf4ddf560f08da734ba5eb%7Cb3e5db5e2944483799f57488ace54319%7C0%7C0%7C637949065987595957%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=4ahAavYkECBZDvi8gsigrFlSXuTlO3onSNAiprG1qSM%3D&reserved=0>
.



Last week, I also discovered that the Club of Rome's “Limits to Growth” is
50-years old this year, whilst as the UK Conservative party tries to select
a replacement for Boris Johnson, the candidates promise (economic) “growth,
growth and more growth", as is the opposition.



So, naturally, I could not resist reading this (4 page) commentary, from
Nature Physics, on the limits to economic growth. Here are the metadata,
and there is a press release pasted below my signature.



Murphy, Thomas W. (2022) *Limits to economic growth.* Nature Physics*;*
https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41567-022-01652-6
<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1038%2Fs41567-022-01652-6&data=05%7C01%7Cbioplan%40groups.undp.org%7C83fa38b805cf4ddf560f08da734ba5eb%7Cb3e5db5e2944483799f57488ace54319%7C0%7C0%7C637949065987595957%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=YMpAQTSuVeoGDK8IqHsslkzOzqzrhgpj6I03znIuMmI%3D&reserved=0>
(free access)

*Across the world, decisions on investment and policy are made under the
assumption of continuous economic expansion. Fundamental physical limits
may soon put an end to this phase of development, as foreshadowed by the
1972 report The Limits to Growth. *


For a longer, recent analysis of how the modelling of the Limits to Growth
is standing up to time, see:

Turner, Graham M. (2022) *On the Cusp of Global Collapse? Updated
Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data*. GAIA - Ecological
Perspectives for Science and Society;
https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/oekom/gaia/2012/00000021/00000002
<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ingentaconnect.com%2Fcontent%2Foekom%2Fgaia%2F2012%2F00000021%2F00000002&data=05%7C01%7Cbioplan%40groups.undp.org%7C83fa38b805cf4ddf560f08da734ba5eb%7Cb3e5db5e2944483799f57488ace54319%7C0%7C0%7C637949065987595957%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=ZdxIWvOTQPV2%2FJRklF7LF8rH%2BiN9XtzBvEFJpZtF5Ws%3D&reserved=0>
(open access) with several other LtG articles in the same issue.


Best wishes for the summer.


David Duthie


 ****************

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****************



*The outer limits: Future economic growth in the face of diminishing
resources*


by University of California - San Diego
<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ucsd.edu%2Fportal%2Fsite%2Fucsd&data=05%7C01%7Cbioplan%40groups.undp.org%7C83fa38b805cf4ddf560f08da734ba5eb%7Cb3e5db5e2944483799f57488ace54319%7C0%7C0%7C637949065987595957%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=XrT0RKOoP7J%2FrNhaqwjalrC50dCJuJlj3OSiMO8QvHU%3D&reserved=0>


July 21, 2022


https://phys.org/news/2022-07-outer-limits-future-economic-growth.html
<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fphys.org%2Fnews%2F2022-07-outer-limits-future-economic-growth.html&data=05%7C01%7Cbioplan%40groups.undp.org%7C83fa38b805cf4ddf560f08da734ba5eb%7Cb3e5db5e2944483799f57488ace54319%7C0%7C0%7C637949065987595957%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=HtFGMbMCV%2Fm0Y%2FGQdmYo1oRkALPAPVSKYCWHPyH3chY%3D&reserved=0>


The 1972 book "The Limits to Growth" shared a somber message for humanity:
the Earth's resources are finite and probably cannot support current rates
of economic and population growth to the end of the 21st century, even with
advanced technology. Although disparaged by economists at the time, it
turns out that, 50 years later, the message still deserves our attention.


University of California San Diego Professor of Physics Thomas Murphy
believes that although no one can say with absolute certainty
<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fphys.org%2Ftags%2Fabsolute%2Bcertainty%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cbioplan%40groups.undp.org%7C83fa38b805cf4ddf560f08da734ba5eb%7Cb3e5db5e2944483799f57488ace54319%7C0%7C0%7C637949065987595957%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=OLOhJrmnvOe%2FMuc2kjDGlnN1CNHOmJ2MFvzKePCz7%2Fo%3D&reserved=0>
that the planet will reach an unavertable crisis by the end of this
century, our current trajectory is unable to continue much longer. His
assessment appears in a comment paper recently published by *Nature Physics*
.


Trained as an astrophysicist, Murphy became interested in planetary limits
after teaching a class on energy and the environment. Students explored the
physics of energy, how to calculate energy demand
<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fphys.org%2Ftags%2Fenergy%2Bdemand%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cbioplan%40groups.undp.org%7C83fa38b805cf4ddf560f08da734ba5eb%7Cb3e5db5e2944483799f57488ace54319%7C0%7C0%7C637949065987595957%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=SqpBBKwxW0Nw1tpqOADhLDMkFCie3uMyg1XwMPZUx2k%3D&reserved=0>
and resources and the resulting environmental impacts. Murphy realized the
issues of resource and energy consumption
<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fphys.org%2Ftags%2Fenergy%2Bconsumption%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cbioplan%40groups.undp.org%7C83fa38b805cf4ddf560f08da734ba5eb%7Cb3e5db5e2944483799f57488ace54319%7C0%7C0%7C637949065987595957%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=Izw23qUXeU%2Ffb5LK%2FX90Ufq8O6kJ5n%2FSrTrG29X%2B3LU%3D&reserved=0>
were more severe than many assumed.


"This is something not enough people are paying attention to," Murphy
stated. "What does life look like after resource depletion? What actions
can we take now to mitigate the worst outcomes—and how do we get people to
take this seriously?"

The Earth has finite resources—this is clear when thinking of fossils
fuels, mined minerals or land, but it can be difficult to imagine a time
when humankind will have to adjust its way of living to accommodate for
these limits.


"In the past, the Earth was able to accommodate our increasing resource
demands," said Murphy, who wrote a book exploring the topic called "Energy
and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet."


"But remember, the Earth has never hosted 8 billion humans before, all of
us pursuing increased consumption demands. We cannot base projections for
future resources on the past. This is uncharted territory."


To illustrate this point, Murphy calculated future energy consumption using
our historical growth rate
<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fphys.org%2Ftags%2Fgrowth%2Brate%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cbioplan%40groups.undp.org%7C83fa38b805cf4ddf560f08da734ba5eb%7Cb3e5db5e2944483799f57488ace54319%7C0%7C0%7C637949065987595957%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=E0w%2FnQtc6hEu5mX76rvTTq%2BTAw8fOeBdYKUu1nXBuNI%3D&reserved=0>
of a factor of ten each century. If humans currently consume 18 TW
(terrawatts) of energy globally, by 2100 that number jumps to 100 TW, by
2200 it's 1,000 TW and so on. In 400 years, we would exceed the total solar
power incident on Earth and in 1,300 years, the entire output of the Sun in
all directions.


Using the same growth rate to extrapolate future levels of waste heat (the
end product of all our energy use
<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fphys.org%2Ftags%2Fenergy%2Buse%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cbioplan%40groups.undp.org%7C83fa38b805cf4ddf560f08da734ba5eb%7Cb3e5db5e2944483799f57488ace54319%7C0%7C0%7C637949065987595957%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=Oyl9SA6r9BWfLFjpnXeNxc96owEQycfp8BYsRuKAx%2BY%3D&reserved=0>,
ultimately radiated to space) also provides a grim outlook: the amount of
waste heat produced would accelerate and cause terrestrial temperatures to
soar. Just beyond 400 years the Earth's surface would reach the boiling
point of water.


Murphy clarifies that this extrapolation of energy consumption and waste
heat is not realistic and not a prediction. It was created to show that our
historical unimpeded growth cannot continue indefinitely into the future.
In fact, if the progression shows anything, it's that the period of
unrestrained energy consumption on Earth will be relatively short-lived
compared to the longevity of civilization.


Even the most optimistic of economists will concede there is a limit to the
Earth's physical resources, but many insist this won't impact economic
growth
<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fphys.org%2Ftags%2Feconomic%2Bgrowth%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cbioplan%40groups.undp.org%7C83fa38b805cf4ddf560f08da734ba5eb%7Cb3e5db5e2944483799f57488ace54319%7C0%7C0%7C637949065987595957%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=P3FchTeGhSo9UmULl%2Fo1Qi6Bc6wtPC2nJ2Ii1T1gOY4%3D&reserved=0>
because money will be "decoupled" from physical resources, thus able to
grow without being constrained by the depletion of fossil fuels or minerals.


"Some might say money doesn't have to obey the laws of physics or that we
can sustain economic growth through innovation," Murphy states. "But those
things are not immune to limits. Even if you think about life in the
virtual realm—that requires physical resources too, to build and run those
computers. We're seeing that for bitcoin mining and the massive amounts of
energy
<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fphys.org%2Ftags%2Fenergy%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cbioplan%40groups.undp.org%7C83fa38b805cf4ddf560f08da734ba5eb%7Cb3e5db5e2944483799f57488ace54319%7C0%7C0%7C637949065987752194%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=bAFY3RZUWOLC80RuzEWya2nAMPjpNlTQDObSrWMbvU0%3D&reserved=0>
it consumes."


It is true, Murphy concedes, that many economic activities
<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fphys.org%2Ftags%2Feconomic%2Bactivities%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cbioplan%40groups.undp.org%7C83fa38b805cf4ddf560f08da734ba5eb%7Cb3e5db5e2944483799f57488ace54319%7C0%7C0%7C637949065987752194%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=yj3lPv%2BjR2CIMOMol6XR5qxTHjQOnRziXFfBlYySqqs%3D&reserved=0>
do not require intense use of physical resources—work in the legal and
financial sectors, for instance, primarily use lighting, heating and
computers but are not fabricating concrete and steel. While it may be easy
to assume the proportion of decoupled activities will continue to increase
while resource demands continue to decrease indefinitely, at some point the
demand for physical resources can shrink no further. As Murphy notes,
humans will always need food.


"We don't see the economic growth we're currently experiencing for what it
is: a phase," stated Murphy. "And one reason we don't see it is because we
don't want to and have never had to. Continued growth spares us from having
to address the issue of reallocating present resources more equitably."


He notes that the perceived benefits of economic growth are a double-edged
sword. As the economy grows, people may be lifted out of poverty, and given
better access to water, food and health care. Their populations grow and,
as the standard of living rises, the higher resource demands overtax the
planet's capacity and threaten to remove those same benefits.


Murphy says the real solution is long-term planning and requires a
fundamental shift in how we think of ourselves as a species. "We need to
change our relationship with the planet. We need the humility to accept
that we do not own the Earth. But how do you convince somebody of something
that's never happened before, lies in the future and requires sacrifice? I
hope that we can plant some seeds soon that will lead to wiser decisions
down the road."

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