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Establishment of a PPR Global Research and Expertise Network (PPR-GREN)

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Subject:
From:
Paul Rossiter <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Paul Rossiter <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Thu, 13 Feb 2014 16:22:03 +0000
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Dear colleagues,
 
To let you know that we have attempted to estimate the basic and effective reproductive ratio for Tanzania. Details can be found in the following link. http://www.ojvr.org/index.php/ojvr/article/view/593
 
Fredrick
 
Fred - I have taken the liberty of copying the abstract from this paper and pasting it below for everyone to read more easily. Moderator 
  
"Peste des petits ruminants virus, which causes a severe disease in sheep and goats, has only recently been officially declared to be present in Tanzania. An epidemiological study was carried out between September 2008 and October 2010 to investigate the incursion, persistence and spread of the virus in Tanzania. The investigation involved serosurveillance, outbreak investigation and computation of epidemiological indices such as the effective reproductive number, persistence and the threshold level for vaccination. Field and molecular epidemiological techniques were applied to isolate, characterise and trace the origin of the virus in Tanzania. A total of 2182 serum samples from goats and 1296 from sheep from 79 villages across 12 districts were investigated. Village-level prevalence of infection was variable (0.00% – 88.00%) and was higher in pastoral than in agro-pastoral villages. The overall antibody response to the virus was 22.10% (CI 95% =
 20.72% – 23.48%). About 68.00% and 73.00% of seropositive goats and sheep, respectively, did not show clinical signs. The proportion of seropositive animals differed significantly (p ≤ 0.001) between age groups, sex and farming practices. Real-time polymerase chain reaction results showed that the isolated strains belong to lineage III, whose origin is in East Africa and the Middle East. This indicates that one of the northern neighbouring countries is most likely the source of infection. The computed overall effective reproductive number, the threshold level of vaccination necessary to eradicate the disease and persistence were 4.75% and 98.00%, respectively. These estimates indicate that achieving elimination of the peste des petits ruminants virus from pastoral flocks will require significant effort and development of highly effective intervention tools".


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