Moderator:  Dr Richard Kock posed us some challenges with last Thursday's contribution about the sub-theme of political ecology.  Never having tied these two concepts together I felt that I needed to know more and asked Richard the following:"Are you saying that we/you should be planning (modelling) ahead on the basis of socio-economic change in much the same way that the distribution and prevalence of many diseases (arbovirusdiseases spring to mind) are being re-assessed in the light of global warming"?
 
Dr Kock - There are different aspects that modelling can help to explain and indicate research gaps. One key question is why is the disease emerging? I propose that the answer lies in the following and more:
a) overall small ruminant population increase, partly driven by reduced range for cattle and increasing range for small livestock – this associated with e.g. rising CO2 levels favouring woody vegetation and general degradation of grasslands with secondary invasion by woody vegetation; rising poverty and dependency on small ruminants;
>b) changing pastoral marketing strategies driven by changing demand for meat; 
>c) changing density patterns of small livestock with urbanisation and reduction in available range through loss of pastoral lands to agriculture, wildlife conservation etc. 
We could ignore these drivers which are constraints on smooth eradication (perhaps) but at the very least they make the overall job more difficult and increasingly so. It may be that changes in policy on small ruminants and their marketing might significantly alter the transmission potentials. We can model this. If the overall strategy includes this sort of action then the eradication process will be facilitated. Not sure we can do much about the CO2 aspects but land management which takes this into account favouring grasslands might help. 
 
I am pleased to see others more qualified than I to comment are now commenting on this aspect and I share their belief that attention to this aspect although not vaccine can subtly help eradicate the virus.  We are now in the age of One Health like it or not!
 
Sincerely, 
Richard 


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