FAO GIEWS Update- Ethiopia: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the main Kiremt rainy season in 2014/15

·         Ethiopia: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the main Kiremt rainy season

·         Éthiopie: El Niño-Oscillation australe (ENSO) et la saison pluvieuse principale Kiremt

·         Etiopía: Oscilación Sureña-El Niño (ENSO) y la temporada principal de lluvias Kiremt

 

 

 

 

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30 June 2014

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Ethiopia: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the main Kiremt rainy season in 2014/15

  An assessment using FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS)

http://www.fao.org/giews/english/imgs/orangebox.gif Current meteorological forecasts indicate a 70 percent probability of El Niño occurring during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer and 80 percent during the autumn or winter

http://www.fao.org/giews/english/imgs/orangebox.gif The effect on agriculture will depend on the timing and severity of the El Niño, as well as the crop calendar in a particular region

http://www.fao.org/giews/english/imgs/orangebox.gif In Ethiopia, an El Niño event is associated with an increased probability of above-average Belg rains (March-May) while the impact on the main Kiremt rains (June-September) is not straightforward

http://www.fao.org/giews/english/imgs/orangebox.gif In this update, the impact of the El Niño conditions over the Ethiopian Kiremt rains and the associated Meher main harvest in the 1985-2013 timeframe is explored Using FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index. Results show a rather mixed picture, indicating the importance of other climatological factors that also that have a sway on the June to September rainfall

http://www.fao.org/giews/english/imgs/orangebox.gif In 2014, the start of the main Kiremt season rains (June-September) is so far adequate in main crop producing areas and current weather forecasts point to average to above average rainfall levels for the remainder of season.



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