Global CA-CoP CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE

for sustainable production intensification and land management


Dear Subscribers,

Please see herebelow a message from David Duthie of Bioplan regarding the two warnings issued by independent scientist calling on humankind to curtail environmental destruction. The first warning was issued in 1992, the year of the Earth Summit, and the second warning was issued this week.

Thank you to David Duthie for sharing this information.

Apologies for any cross-posting.

Amir Kassam

Moderator

e-mail: [log in to unmask]      
URL:
www.fao.org/ag/ca


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: David Duthie <[log in to unmask]>
Date: Tue, Nov 14, 2017 at 5:44 PM
Subject: Are we playing baseball with the planet?
To: bioplan <[log in to unmask]>


Dear BIOPLANNERS,

Twenty-five years ago, in 1992, the year of the Earth Summit, and the adoption of the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Union of Concerned Scientists and more than 1700 independent scientists, including the majority of living Nobel laureates in the sciences, penned the 1992 “World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity” - a short Manifesto calling on humankind to curtail environmental destruction and cautioning  that “a great change in our stewardship of the Earth and the life on it is required, if vast human misery is to be avoided.”   The original manifesto (in English only) may be downloaded as a ZIP file here - https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/bioscience/PAP/10.1093_biosci_bix125/2/bix125_supp.zip.

This week, another warning has been issued, this time supported by 15,000 online signatures (a list is included in the ZIP file at the link above).  The message has not changed much, and the figures are pretty scary (unless you enjoy handbrake turns!)

Here are the metadata to the English version of the "second warning"........

RIPPLE, W. J., Wolf, C., Newsome, T. M., Galetti, M., Alamgir, M., Crist, E., et al. (2017). World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice. BioScience. (in press) URL https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/4605229 (free access)


Spanish, Portuguese, and French versions of the "second warning" can be found at the ZIP file link in the first paragraph above.

I did a quick search of the signatures looking for a few of our known "sciencey" BIOPLANNERS, but did not find one there, so please let me know if you are on the list - or do we have another kind of echo chamber here?

The next 25 years will bring us to 2042.  Will it be third strike and out, or will we finally be on a much-needed home run to the "doughnut space" that we all know we need to go to?  I can hardly wait to see!

Best wishes

David Duthie

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15,000 scientists in 184 countries warn about negative global environmental trends

Date:      November 13, 2017

Source:  Oregon State University

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171113111127.htm

Summary: Human well-being will be severely jeopardized by negative trends in some types of environmental harm, such as a changing climate, deforestation, loss of access to fresh water, species extinctions and human population growth, scientists warn. 

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Human well-being will be severely jeopardized by negative trends in some types of environmental harm, such as a changing climate, deforestation, loss of access to fresh water, species extinctions and human population growth, scientists warn in today's issue of BioScience, an international journal.

The viewpoint article -- "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice" -- was signed by more than 15,000 scientists in 184 countries.

The warning came with steps that can be taken to reverse negative trends, but the authors suggested that it may take a groundswell of public pressure to convince political leaders to take the right corrective actions. Such activities could include establishing more terrestrial and marine reserves, strengthening enforcement of anti-poaching laws and restraints on wildlife trade, expanding family planning and educational programs for women, promoting a dietary shift toward plant-based foods and massively adopting renewable energy and other "green" technologies.

Global trends have worsened since 1992, the authors wrote, when more than 1,700 scientists -- including a majority of the living Nobel laureates at the time -- signed a "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity" published by the Union of Concerned Scientists. In the last 25 years, trends in nine environmental issues suggest that humanity is continuing to risk its future. However, the article also reports that progress has been made in addressing some trends during this time.

The article was written by an international team led by William Ripple, distinguished professor in the College of Forestry at Oregon State University. The authors used data maintained by government agencies, nonprofit organizations and individual researchers to warn of "substantial and irreversible harm" to the Earth.

"Some people might be tempted to dismiss this evidence and think we are just being alarmist," said Ripple. "Scientists are in the business of analyzing data and looking at the long-term consequences. Those who signed this second warning aren't just raising a false alarm. They are acknowledging the obvious signs that we are heading down an unsustainable path. We are hoping that our paper will ignite a wide-spread public debate about the global environment and climate."

Progress in some areas -- such as a reduction in ozone-depleting chemicals and an increase in energy generated from renewable sources -- shows that positive changes can be made, the authors wrote. There has been a rapid decline in fertility rates in some regions, which can be attributed to investments in education for women, they added. The rate of deforestation in some regions has also slowed.

Among the negative 25-year global trends noted in the article are:

  • A 26 percent reduction in the amount of fresh water available per capita
  • A drop in the harvest of wild-caught fish, despite an increase in fishing effort
  • A 75 percent increase in the number of ocean dead zones
  • A loss of nearly 300 million acres of forestland, much of it converted for agricultural uses
  • Continuing significant increases in global carbon emissions and average temperatures
  • A 35 percent rise in human population
  • A collective 29 percent reduction in the numbers of mammals, reptiles, amphibians, birds and fish

Ripple and his colleagues have formed a new independent organization, the Alliance of World Scientists, to be a collective voice on environmental sustainability and human well-being. Scientists who did not sign the warning prior to publication can endorse the published warning by visiting http://scientists.forestry.oregonstate.edu/.

Co-authors of the article include Ripple and Christopher Wolf at Oregon State University and Eileen Crist of Virginia Tech in the United States; Mauro Galleti of the Universidade Estadual Paulista in Brazil; Thomas Newsome of The University of Sydney and Deakin University and William Laurence of James Cook University in Australia; Mohammad Alongir of the University of Chittagong in Bangladesh; Mahmoud Mahmoud of the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency in Nigeria.


Journal Reference:

  1. William J. Ripple et al. World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice. BioScience, 2017 (in press) DOI: 10.1093/biosci/bix125 (free access)

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